In 2002, the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists formally
recommended that chickenpox, or varicella, become a nationally reportable
disease. Assuming each of the 50 states adopts this recommendation,
it will still take a few years to fully implement.
It is precisely the lack of national surveillance data for chickenpox
in 1995, the year of licensure of the vaccine by the Food and Drug
Administration, made it especially challenging to monitor the impact
of the varicella immunization program. This situation was in contrast
with other diseases, such as measles, rubella and mumps, which were
reportable under the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System
when their vaccination programs were implemented in the U.S.
The lack of a monitoring mechanism prompted the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC), in collaboration with state and local
health departments, to launch an active surveillance study in 1995.
According to the study's lead investigator, Dr. Jane F. Seward, three
communities were selected for the study: Antelope Valley, California;
Travis County, Texas and West Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Dr. Seward
is Acting Chief, Child Vaccine Preventable Diseases Branch, of the
CDC's National Immunization Program.
According to the CDC, prior to licensure of the varicella vaccine
in 1995, chickenpox was a universal childhood disease in the U.S.,
causing approximately 4 million cases each year. Chickenpox-related
complications resulted in an annual average of 11,000 hospitalizations
and 100 deaths.
In designing the study, investigators wanted the data to be population-based,
covering all groups. According to Dr. Seward, the communities chosen
were fairly representative of different segments of the American population.
In 1995, the populations of Antelope Valley, Travis County and West
Philadelphia were 284,000, 666,127 and 291,608, respectively. In Antelope
Valley and Travis County, the populations were predominantly white--89
and 85 percent of the total-- with approximately 20 percent of the
white populations in each area reporting Hispanic ethnicity. The population
of West Philadelphia was predominantly (69 percent) African-American.
As reported in the February 6, 2002 edition of the Journal of the
American Medical Association, the study examined surveillance
data from January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2000. The investigators,
goals were to, first, establish baseline data and, second, to monitor
trends in varicella following introduction of the vaccine. Reporting
sites in each community included: childcare centers; schools; universities;
private health
care providers; health maintenance organizations; emergency departments;
hospitals; public health clinics and households.
In 1997, among children aged 19 to 35 months, vaccine coverage in
Los Angeles County, Texas and Philadelphia County was 40, 23 and 43
percent, respectively. By 2000, coverage had increased to 82.1, 73.6
and 83.8 percent respectively, which the study termed "moderate vaccine
coverage". According to Dr. Seward, 90 percent coverage is considered
high.
"Vaccine coverage was higher at these three sites than in rest of
country," said Dr. Seward. "Therefore, our findings may not be completely
representative of the entire U.S.-which was 68 percent in June 2000-but
rather ahead in terms of vaccine uptake and disease decline. This
greater coverage rate may be due to heightened awareness of varicella
and its consequences in these communities. However, there was no extensive
effort in the three sites to educate the public about the disease
and vaccination."
The study found that, four years after implementation of the varicella
vaccination program in the U.S., there was "dramatic evidence of vaccine
impact with a marked decline in all age groups". From 1995 through
2000, in Antelope Valley, Travis County and West Philadelphia, chickenpox
cases declined 71, 84 and 79 percent, respectively. Cases declined
in all age groups, including infants and adults. The study noted this
was indicative of a reduced transmission of varicella-zoster virus
in these communities. The declines were greatest among preschool children
aged one to four years.
The study stated that, "in 1995, there were 2,934 verified varicella
cases reported in Antelope Valley, 3,130 in Travis County and 1,197
in West Philadelphia. In all sites, the number of cases declined in
1996...remained fairly stable until 1998...(with) a marked decline
in...1999. In 2000, there were 837, 491 and 250 reported cases in
Antelope Valley, Travis County and West Philadelphia (respectively).
From 1995 to 2000, varicella cases showed springtime seasonality,
with the highest number of cases reported between March and May."
Hospitalizations due to varicella also declined significantly. According
to the study, "considering all surveillance areas together, from 1995
through 1998, varicella hospitalizations ranged from 34 to 53 per
year (average 40 per year). In 1999 and 2000, 8 and 20 varicella hospitalizations
were reported, respectively...50 to 80 percent lower than the average
number of hospitalizations from 1995 through 1998."
The study concluded the "...continued implementation of existing vaccine
policies should lead to further reductions of varicella disease in
these communities and throughout the United States...Our surveillance
data underscores the importance of not only continuing efforts to
achieve more than 90 percent vaccine coverage among young children,
but also of implementing existing policy recommendations for catch-up
vaccination of susceptible older children and adolescents to prevent
increasing susceptibility in these groups."
"The CDC's goal, by 2010, is for the U.S. to achieve a 90 percent
reduction in disease, in addition to vaccine coverage of 90 percent
among children aged two and 95 percent of children at school entry,"
said Dr. Seward. "We also seek to maintain these percentages as a
means of achieving a continuous decline in disease, as was seen with
measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases. However, we might
require a higher than 90 percent vaccine coverage for varicella, because
of the potential for exposure of children to the VZV virus through
contact with individuals with shingles, and due to the fact varicella
vaccine is not quite as effective as the measles vaccine." Alternatively,
a two-dose vaccine policy, which may decrease rates of vaccine failure,
may be needed in the future.
According to Dr. Seward, "The study was an exciting project that gave
us more detailed information concerning varicella cases than we normally
obtain about diseases monitored under the National Notifiable Disease
Surveillance System." She added that surveillance would continue in
Antelope Valley and West Philadelphia through 2004. Next year, the
CDC will decide whether another five-year period of surveillance will
be funded in these two sites or if it will rely on state-based surveillance.
"We are also seeing clear evidence of vaccine impact in state surveillance
data," said Dr. Seward.
Study Data Source: Journal of the American Medical Association,
February 6, 2002-Vol. 287, No. 5, Pp. 606-611
Varicella Disease After Introduction of Varicella Vaccine in the
United States, 1995-2000
Jane F. Seward (1), Barbara M. Watson (2), Carol L. Peterson (3),
Laurene Mascola (3), Jan W. Pelosi (4), John X. Zhang (1), Teresa
J. Maupin (3), Gary S. Goldman (3), Laura J. Tabony (4), Kimberly
G. Brodovicz (2), Aisha O. Jumaan (1), Melinda Wharton (1)
(1) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
(2) Philadelphia Department of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
(3) Los Angeles County Department of Health Services, Los Angeles,
California
(4) Texas Department of Health, Austin, Texas
THE SHINGLES PREVENTION STUDY: AN UPDATE
The varicella vaccination study demonstrated a dramatic decline in
chickenpox following vaccination. However, it remains unknown whether
vaccination with a more potent form of the same vaccine can decrease
the incidence and/or severity of shingles (herpes zoster) and post-herpetic
neuralgia (PHN) in older adults.
The Shingles Prevention Study seeks to find an answer to this
question. The study is a double-blind, placebo-controlled, efficacy
trial involving 38,546 subjects age 60 or older who have never had
shingles. It is being conducted at 22 sites throughout the country
by the Veterans Administration Cooperative Studies Program, with the
scientific collaboration of the National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health, and Merck
& Co., Inc., the vaccine's manufacturer.
The study is chaired by Dr. Michael N. Oxman, Professor of Medicine
and Pathology at the University of California, San Diego, and a Staff
Physician in the Infectious Diseases Section of the VA San Diego Healthcare
System. He credits a paper written in 1965 by a British general practitioner
as a major inspiration for this study. "It was all there in Dr. Edgar
Hope-Simpson's landmark paper, in which he hypothesized that individuals
develop shingles as they age because their immunity to the virus is
weakening. He also concluded that people rarely develop shingles more
than once because their first episode boosts their immunity to the
virus, effectively immunizing them against another attack."
According to Dr. Oxman, a member of the VZVRF Scientific Advisory
Board, the Shingles Prevention Study is testing the theory that virus-specific
cell-mediated immunity is a key determinant of shingles and its severity.
"Specifically, we are seeking to determine whether immunization with
an investigational live-attenuated Oka/Merck varicella-zoster vaccine
will, by boosting that immunity, reduce significantly the burden of
illness due to shingles and, in addition, protect against PHN," he
said.
Study subjects were enrolled between early 1999 and September 2001.
One-half received live-attenuated varicella-zoster vaccine, while
the other half received a placebo. The vaccine was a cell-free preparation
modified from the live attenuated Oka strain of varicella-zoster virus
(VZV) employed in the chickenpox vaccine, VARIVAXÏ, that is used to
prevent chickenpox in susceptible children and adults. The investigational
varicella-zoster vaccine, which is designed to boost immunity to VZV
in adults who have
already had chickenpox, contains substantially more live attenuated
virus and viral antigen than are present in the chickenpox vaccine.
"The investigational varicella-zoster vaccine is produced in a manner
similar to the chickenpox vaccine, which was developed by Dr. Takahashi,
but it contains a lot more VZV," said Dr. Oxman. "Presumably, most
adults 60 and over are already immune to chickenpox because they had
it in childhood, and this vaccine is designed to boost their cellular
immunity to VZV which, by age 60, has fallen off significantly from
the level present just after they recovered from chickenpox. The waning
of cellular immunity to VZV as one ages is probably why people get
shingles more frequently and more severely when they get older."
Study subjects are required to report in to the study once each month
via
an automated telephone response system on the anniversary of their
vaccination (with vaccine or placebo). If a subject does not call
in as scheduled, the local Study Coordinator who enrolled the subject
will attempt to reach the subject. However, if a subject develops
shingles, he/she must contact the local study site immediately. "We
want subjects to come in as early as possible so that they can begin
receiving state-of-the-art treatment without delay," said Dr. Oxman.
"We then begin measuring the extent, severity and duration of the
disease, as well as its impact on the subject's quality of life and
activities of daily living. We assess these indicators repeatedly
during the six-month period following the onset of their shingles."
Dr. Oxman estimates that the last case of shingles to be tracked by
the study will occur at the end of December 2003. As with all cases
of shingles, it will be followed for six months, with the last data
point being recorded at the end of June 2004. "We will then lock the
data and break the code," he said. "We will compare the total burden
of illness in the placebo group versus the vaccine group. If the vaccine
is effective, most of the misery, including the shingles pain, will
be in the placebo group. If the vaccine is not highly effective, the
misery will be distributed more evenly."
According to Dr. Oxman, the study will help determine whether the
vaccine affects the incidence of shingles, or its severity, or both.
"It might just reduce the number of cases, with the cases that do
occur being just as devastating as cases in the placebo recipients,"
he added. "Alternatively, the vaccine might not reduce the number
of cases at all, but markedly reduce their severity, or it might reduce
both the incidence and the severity of shingles. Armed with this data,
the vaccine manufacturer and regulatory bodies will then be able to
determine whether the decrease in the incidence and/or severity of
shingles achieved merits licensing the vaccine." It is estimated the
study will conclude in June 2004, with findings released by the end
of the year.
As he immerses himself in the study's follow-up phase, Dr. Oxman notes
that an added benefit of the study has been that thousands of subjects
and their families have been educated about shingles and the importance
of prompt diagnosis and treatment. And, like his fellow study subjects,
he looks forward to finding out if he received vaccine or placebo.